There is no conflict of interest.
Citation
Schochet, P. (2021). Long-run labor market effects of the Job Corps program: Evidence from a nationally representative experiment. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 40(1), 128-157. https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22233
Highlights
- The study's objective was to examine the impact of Job Corps on long-term earnings, employment, and public benefits receipt.
- The study was a randomized controlled trial that assigned youth to a treatment or control group. The primary data sources were tax documents obtained from the Office of Tax Analysis (OTA). The author compared the outcomes of participants in the treatment and control groups 20 years after random assignment using statistical models.
- The study found that Job Corps participation had no significant lasting effects on employment, earnings, or public benefits after 20 years. However, outcomes varied by the age of participants at random assignment, with some age groups being significantly less likely to be employed or receive public benefits two decades later.
- This study receives a high evidence rating. This means we are confident that the estimated effects are attributable to Job Corps, and not to other factors.
Intervention Examined
Job Corps
Features of the Intervention
Job Corps is a career technical training and education program for at-risk or disconnected youth who are between the ages of 16 and 24. To participate in the program, participants must be a legal permanent resident of the U.S. and cannot have any serious behavioral problems. The program provides academic support, vocational training, health services, and additional support services to program participants who live mostly in a residential setting at Job Corps facilities. Job Corps participants receive services such as GED or high school diploma assistance, health care, career and technical education training, social skills training, food and clothing, counseling, parenting and cultural awareness courses, and recreation activities. Participants could receive training in more than 75 trades and obtain hands-on experience through community projects. After completing the program, students receive career transition services to assist them in finding living or travel arrangements or family support resources.
Previous impact studies of the Job Corps program have broadly demonstrated that individuals who complete the Job Corps program are more likely to obtain extra schooling, less likely to be arrested and convicted, and are likely to earn higher incomes than those who were in the control group. The current study aimed to examine the effects of the Job Corps program on participants 20 years after random assignment.
Features of the Study
The study was a randomized controlled trial that assigned 15,386 youth to the treatment or control group. About 61% (9,409) of the eligible youth were randomly assigned to the treatment group, with the remaining 39% (5,977) assigned to the control group across 110 Job Corps locations between November 1994 and December 1996. Participants in the treatment and control groups were similar in demographic characteristics, education and employment history, arrests, drug use, and health. Youth assigned to the treatment group could enroll in Job Corps, while those assigned to the control group could not enroll in Job Corps for at least 3 years. However, they could participate in external education or training programs not affiliated with Job Corps.
The study used tax data from 2015 provided by the Office of Tax Analysis (OTA) at the U.S. Department of the Treasury to examine overall earnings, employment, and public benefits receipt of Job Corps study participants 20 years after random assignment (now between the ages of 36 and 44). The author compared the outcomes of participants in the treatment and control groups using statistical models.
Findings
Employment
- Overall, the study found no significant differences in employment status between Job Corps participants and control group participants at the 20-year follow-up. However, Job Corps participants who were 18 to 19 during random assignment were significantly less likely to be employed after 20 years compared to those who were 16 to 17 or 20 to 24 at the time of assignment.
Earnings and wages
- The study found no significant differences in earnings between Job Corps participants and control group participants, either overall or by age group at the 20-year follow-up.
Public benefits receipt
- Overall, the study did not find a significant difference between the groups in SSDI benefits receipt at the 20 year follow-up. However, Job Corps participants who were 20 to 24 years old during random assignment were significantly less likely to receive SSDI benefits after 20 years compared to those who were 16 to 17 or 18 to 19 at the time of assignment.
Considerations for Interpreting the Findings
The study author estimated multiple related impacts on outcomes related to earnings and employment. Performing multiple statistical tests on related outcomes makes it more likely that some impacts will be found statistically significant purely by chance and not because they reflect program effectiveness. The author did not perform statistical adjustments to account for the multiple tests, so the number of statistically significant findings in these domains is likely to be overstated. Also, the study reports a less stringent statistical significance level, considering p-values of less than 0.10 to be significant, though it is standard practice to consider statistical significance if the p-value is less than 0.05. Only results that demonstrate a p-value of less than 0.05 are considered statistically significant in this profile.
Causal Evidence Rating
The quality of causal evidence presented in this report is high because it was based on a well-implemented randomized controlled trial. This means we are confident that the estimated effects are attributable to Job Corps, and not to other factors.