Absence of conflict of interest.
Citation
Behrman, J. R., Parker, S. W., & Todd, P. E. (2011). Do conditional cash transfers for schooling generate lasting benefits? A five-year followup of PROGRESA/Oportunidades. Journal of Human Resources, 46(1), 93-122. doi:10.3368/jhr.46.1.93
Highlights
- The study’s objective was to examine the impact of Mexico’s conditional cash transfer program (PROGRESA/Oportunidades) on long-term schooling and work for children ages 9 to 15 (during the time of the intervention).
- Using survey data from a randomized controlled trial, the authors analyzed the impact of the PROGRESA/Oportunidades program on schooling and work 18-months after implementation. The authors also used a nonexperimental design to evaluate schooling and work outcomes five-and-a-half years post-implementation.
- The study found that 18 months of program exposure significantly increased the school grade completion by 2.4 percent for boys and 2.7 percent for girls. The 18-month program exposure significantly decreased participation in work by 4.1 percent for boys but had no significant effect for girls. The study found a statistically significant relationship between the program and increased school grade completion five-and-a-half years post-implementation for all groups except for girls aged 17-19. It also found a statistically significant relationship between the program and a reduction in child labor for boys aged 15-16 in 2003 but did not find a significant relationship between the program for girls or for any other age groups of boys.
- The quality of causal evidence presented in this report is high for short-term outcomes (18 months) because they are based on a well-implemented randomized controlled trial but low for longer-term outcomes (five-and-a-half years) because the authors did not account for the outcomes of schooling and work at baseline.
Intervention Examined
PROGRESA/Oportunidades
Features of the Intervention
The PROGRESA program started in Mexican rural areas in 1997 and was modified and renamed Oportunidades in 2000. It has gradually expanded to urban areas. The program provides monthly conditional cash transfers to five million families. The cash transfer is conditional upon child school attendance and health clinic visits for family members. The amount of the cash transfer varies by gender and increases with the grade of the child. However, if a child repeats a grade twice, he or she will permanently lose the cash transfer.
Features of the Study
The study used survey data from a randomized controlled trial. The original study randomly assigned 320 communities to the treatment group and 186 communities to the control group. After 18 months, the control group also began to receive the treatment (cash benefits).
In this study, authors used the 1997 baseline Survey of Household Socio-Economic Conditions and linked it with data from the 2003 rural Evaluation Survey of PROGRESA/Oportunidades. This linkage provided longitudinal data for children who were 9 to 15 in 1997 and 15 to 21 in 2003. The authors had complete data for 8,894 children in the treatment group and 5,591 children in the control group.
To test the longer-term impact of the PROGRESA/Oportunidades program on schooling and work, the authors used propensity score matching to create a comparable group of non-participating households from 2003 data. The non-participating households had similar household and community characteristics as the participating households. This new comparison group comprised households from 152 communities that had not been involved in the program in 2003.
Findings
Employment/Child labor
- The study found that 18 months of program exposure significantly reduced participation in work by 4.1 percent for boys but had no significant effect for girls.
- The study found a statistically significant relationship between the program and a reduction in child labor for boys aged 15-16 in 2003 but not for girls or any other age group of boys.
Education (School participation/enrollment)
- The study found that 18 months of program exposure significantly increased the school grade completed by 2.4 percent for boys and 2.7 percent for girls.
- The study found a statistically significant relationship between the program and increased school grade completion five-and-a-half years post-implementation for all groups with the exception of girls aged 17-19.
Considerations for Interpreting the Findings
The authors created a matched group of non-participating households to compare to PROGRESA/Oportunidades participating-households. However, the authors did not account for the outcomes at baseline, such as previous school attendance or child labor. Preexisting differences between the groups—and not the program/intervention— could explain the observed differences in outcomes. Also, the education outcomes, but not the work outcomes, were the same for the original treatment and control groups at baseline.
Causal Evidence Rating
The quality of causal evidence presented in this report is high for short-term outcomes (18 months) because they are based on a well-implemented randomized controlled trial. This means we are confident that the estimated effects are attributable to the PROGRESA/ Oportunidades program and not to other factors. The quality of causal evidence presented in this report is low for longer-term outcomes (five-and-a-half years) because the authors did not account for the outcomes of schooling and work at baseline. This means we are not confident that the estimated effects are attributable to PROGRESA/Oportunidades; other factors are likely to have contributed.