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Marginal Effects of Merit Aid for Low-Income Students [Four-Year College Student Sample] (Angrist et al., 2020)

Review Guidelines

Absence of conflict of interest.

Citation

Angrist, J., Autor, D., & Pallais, A. (2020). Marginal Effects of Merit Aid for Low-Income Students. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. (No. w27834). [Four-Year College Student Sample]

Highlights

  • The study's objective was to examine the impact of the Susan Thompson Buffet Foundation (STBF) financial aid awards on education outcomes for four-year college students. The authors investigated similar research questions for another contrast, the profile of which can be found here. 
  • The study was a randomized controlled trial that assigned college students to the treatment or control group. The authors examined the effects of the STBF financial award using data from the STBF online application, administrative records from Nebraska's public colleges, and the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC). The study authors used a statistical model to compare the outcomes of treatment and control members. 
  • The study found that students who received a STBF financial aid award completed bachelor's degrees at a significantly higher rate than students in the control group. Those students also completed significantly more college credits than control group students.   
  • This study receives a moderate evidence rating. This means we are somewhat confident that the estimated effects are attributable to STBF financial aid awards, but other factors might also have contributed. 

Intervention Examined

Susan Thompson Buffet Foundation (STBF) Financial Aid Awards

Features of the Intervention

The Susan Thompson Buffet Foundation (STBF) has been providing post-secondary grant aid to college students in Nebraska since 1965. Supporting about 4,000 college students annually, the STBF is one of the largest private organizations providing post-secondary grant aid to students in Nebraska. The STBF financial award is targeted to high-school seniors or graduates who are residents of Nebraska and who have not yet enrolled in college. To be eligible for the STBF award, students must demonstrate college readiness by having a minimum high school GPA of 2.5. Students must also submit an essay and letters of recommendation. STBF’s decision to award the funds is based on merit as well as financial need as reported in the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). Students who receive the STBF award can apply it toward the cost of attendance at any public four-year or two-year college in Nebraska. The amount of the award is based on the specific college campus. STBF also factors in the tuition and fees costs plus a $500 allowance for books when determining the award amount. Students can renew the award each year if they maintain at least a 2.0 GPA. Students at four-year colleges may renew it for five years, while students at two-year colleges may renew it for three years.

Features of the Study

The authors used a randomized controlled trial to assign students to the treatment or control group.  Students who applied for the STBF award between 2012 and 2016 were entered in the random assignment pool if their applications did not receive a score in the top 15% of the applicant pool or the bottom 10% of the applicant pool. A total of five cohorts of students were enrolled in the study, with 6,845 students intending to enroll in four-year colleges. Of these 6,845 students, 3,059 students were assigned to the treatment group and 3,786 were assigned to the control group. Students in the treatment group were offered a financial aid package from the STBF. Students in the control group were not offered a financial aid package from the STBF but could receive federal financial aid or scholarships from other sources. Data sources included STBF online applications, administrative records from Nebraska's public colleges, and the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC). The study authors used a statistical model to compare the outcomes of treatment and control members. 

Findings

Education and Skill Gains 

  • The study found a positive significant relationship between receiving the STBF award and 6-year bachelor's degree completion rates.  
  • The study found a positive significant relationship between receiving the STBF award and earning four-year college credits. Specifically, the award increased the likelihood that students earned 24-28 four-year credits.  
  • The study also found that, compared to white applicants, non-white applicants experienced a significant increase in college completion rates. 

Considerations for Interpreting the Findings

Although the study was a randomized controlled trial, the study suffered from high attrition. However, the authors did account for baseline differences between the treatment and control groups, so the study is eligible for a moderate evidence rating. Additionally, the sample consists of students who, at the time of the application, indicated that they intend to attend a four-year university. This does not, however, require them to attend a four-year school. In fact, some of these students attended a two-year college. Lastly, to estimate the impact on degree completion, the authors used a statistical model to predict the number of credits completed. The authors then use the predicted credits to estimate the impact of STBF on degree completion.  

Causal Evidence Rating

The quality of causal evidence presented in this report is moderate because it was a randomized controlled trial with high attrition, but the authors ensured that the groups being compared were similar before the intervention. This means we are somewhat confident that the estimated effects are attributable to STBF financial aid awards, but other factors might also have contributed. 

Reviewed by CLEAR

May 2024