Absence of conflict of interest.
Citation
Asfaw, S., Davis, B., Dewbre, J., Handa, S., & Winters, P. (2014). Cash transfer programme, productive activities and labour supply: Evidence from a randomised experiment in Kenya. The Journal of Development Studies, 50(8), 1172-1196. doi: 10.1080/00220388.2014.919383
Highlights
- The study’s objective was to assess the impact of a monthly cash transfer program on household food consumption, resources, and work, including child labor.
- The study used survey data from a clustered randomized controlled trial. Households from seven districts in Kenya were randomly assigned to either the treatment or control group. Within those locations, 20 percent of the poorest households were recruited if they had one or more children 17 years old or younger who was an orphan or had a chronically ill parent or caregiver.
- The study found a statistically significant relationship between the program and a reduction in farm labor for children ages 10-15. This relationship was significant for boys but not for girls. There was also a statistically significant relationship between the program and an increase in school enrollment for children ages 12-18.
- The quality of causal evidence presented in this report is low because it was based on a randomized controlled trial with high attrition and the authors did not demonstrate that groups were similar at baseline. This means we are not confident that the estimated effects are attributable to the Kenya Cash Transfer Programme for Orphans and Vulnerable Children; other factors are likely to have contributed.
Intervention Examined
Kenya Cash Transfer Programme for Orphans and Vulnerable Children (CT-OVC) Experiment
Features of the Intervention
The Kenya Cash Transfer Programme for Orphans and Vulnerable Children (CT-OVC) is the government’s primary poverty reduction program. It focuses on the poorest households with at least one vulnerable child defined as an orphan or child with a chronically ill parent or caregiver aged 17 or younger. The program aims to improve household economic outcomes and to improve the care of OVC through a monthly cash transfer (equivalent to $21 USD in 2007).
From 2007-2011, UNICEF contracted a randomized controlled trial to assess the impact of the CT-OVC program on household welfare indicators, including child labor. Seven Kenyan districts with high rates of poverty and HIV/AIDS were selected to implement the program. Since the program could not be implemented across all locations in the districts at the same time, four locations were selected within each district and were randomly assigned to either the treatment or control group. In the treatment locations, a committee of local citizens identified households to receive the monthly cash stipend based on poverty and the vulnerable child criteria described above, while households in the control group did not receive the stipend. Eligible households completed a socioeconomic questionnaire to confirm eligibility. The sample was narrowed through eligibility verification and availability of program funding per district, with preference first given to households that were child-led, and then to adult-led households, beginning with the oldest heads of household. In the control locations, the households identified by the local committee based on poverty and the vulnerable child criteria were included in the control group. The baseline sample included 2,294 households (1,542 treatment and 755 control). Treatment households received monthly cash transfers.
Features of the Study
This study used survey data from the clustered randomized controlled trial to assess the effects of the CT-OVC program on child labor. Survey responses were examined at baseline and four years after the start of the program. The 2011 sample included 1,811 households (1,280 and 531 control). The authors used a regression model to compare farm labor participation rates between treatment and control group children ages 10-15. They also looked at the impact of the program on school enrollment.
Findings
Employment/Child labor
• The study found a statistically significant relationship between the CT-OVC program and a reduction in child labor. This relationship was significant for boys but not for girls.
Education (School participation/enrollment)
- The study found a statistically significant relationship between the CT-OVC program and an increase in school enrollment for children ages 12-18. However, the authors did not provide the data associated with this finding.
Considerations for Interpreting the Findings
The original study was a randomized controlled trial with high attrition from the sample. Because attrition affected the treatment and control groups’ comparability on background characteristics that could have affected the outcomes of interest, CLEAR reviews the study as a quasi-experimental design. While the study accounted for demographic differences between the treatment and control groups, the authors did not account for the child outcomes at baseline. As a result, preexisting differences between the groups—and not the program/intervention—could explain the observed differences in outcomes. In particular, there may have already been a lower rate of child labor in the treatment group prior to the study which could account for the significantly lower rate of child labor in the treatment group four years after the start of the program. Also, one of the Kenyan districts was not included in the assessment of the child labor outcomes and this may have created additional pre-existing differences between the two groups.
Causal Evidence Rating
The quality of causal evidence presented in this report is low because it was based on a randomized controlled trial with high attrition and the authors did not demonstrate that groups were similar at baseline. This means we are not confident that the estimated effects are attributable to the Kenya Cash Transfer Programme for Orphans and Vulnerable Children; other factors are likely to have contributed.