Absence of conflict of interest.
Citation
O’Conner, R., Schoeneberger, J., & Clark, D. (2023). Evaluation of the Transition Assistance Program (TAP) impact study report. U.S. Department of Labor, Chief Evaluation Office; ICF Incorporated LLC.
Highlights
- The study's objective was to examine the impact of the Transition Goals, Plans, and Success (Transition GPS) program on earnings and wages, employment, and public benefits receipt.
- Using administrative data from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point’s Office of Economic and Manpower Analysis (OEMA) and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ National Directory of New Hires (NDNH), the authors conducted a nonexperimental study with propensity score matching to compare the outcomes of Army Transitioning Service Members (TSMs) who participated in the Transition GPS program to a matched comparison group of TSMs who did not participate in the Transition GPS program.
- The study found that Transition GPS participants had significantly lower earnings and wage growth than the matched comparison group. The study found mixed impacts on employment outcomes. Compared to the matched comparison group, a significantly lower share of Transition GPS participants were employed at 6 months post-separation, but became employed significantly faster after separation and a higher share were employed at 12 months, with higher employment retention. The study also found mixed impacts on public benefits receipt. Compared to the matched comparison group, Transition GPS participants received significantly higher UI benefits at 6 months post-separation but significantly lower benefits at 12 and 36 months post-separation.
- The quality of causal evidence presented in this report is moderate because it was based on a well-implemented non-experimental design. This means we are somewhat confident that the estimated effects are attributable to Transition GPS, but other factors might also have contributed.
Intervention Examined
Transition Goals, Plans, and Success (Transition GPS)
Features of the Intervention
The Transition Assistance Program (TAP) was established by the U.S. Department of Labor to help separating and retiring service members transition to civilian work. In 2012, the TAP was modified to include a standardized curriculum called “Transition Goals, Plans, and Success” (Transition GPS) to help connect Veterans to eligible resource, conduct needs assessments, and provide job search and career development workshops. The main elements of the Transition GPS curriculum include pre-separation counseling; a one-day workshop focused on transition resources, financial planning best practices, and a skill-matching crosswalk tool; a three-day employment workshop; and a one-day briefing from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) on available benefits. Participants can also opt into an additional two-day training track focused on higher education, career and technical education, or entrepreneurship. This study focused on Army TSMs eligible to receive TAP. While TAP is mandatory for TSMs from all service branches, the authors were only able to examine Army TSMs due to limited data availability from the DOD Defense Manpower Data Center.
Features of the Study
The study used a non-experimental design to compare the outcomes of Army TSMs who participated in the Transition GPS program with a matched comparison group of Army TSMs who did not participate in the Transition GPS program. The treatment group included all Army TSMs who participated in the Transition GPS program between October 2014 and June 2019. The comparison group included all Army TSMs who separated between October 2014 and June 2019 and did not complete the DOL Employment Workshop prior to separation. Most participants were men and were 34 years of age or younger. Over half had less than 6 years of experience in the armed forces.
The authors used administrative data from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point’s Office of Economic and Manpower Analysis (OEMA) and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ National Directory of New Hires (NDNH). The authors used propensity scores to match participants on observable characteristics and then applied a statistical model to compare outcomes for the two groups.
Findings
Earnings and wages
- The study found that Transition GPS participants earned significantly less than the matched comparison group across all follow up points: 6 months ($1,973.80 less), 12 months ($1,505.10 less), 24 months ($1,361,73 less), and 36 months post-separation ($1,238.02 less).
- The study found that Transition GPS participants had significantly lower wage growth from the 1st to 5th quarter post-separation ($483.32 less) than the matched comparison group.
- The study found that Transition GPS participants had significantly lower wage changes from separation to the 4th quarter post-separation ($1,239.30 less) than the matched comparison group.
Employment
- The study found that Transition GPS found employment faster after separation, becoming employed in a significantly lower number of quarters (0.78) than the matched comparison group (0.82).
- The study found that a significantly lower share of Transition GPS participants (84.0%) were employed 6 months post-separation than the matched comparison group (84.4%). However, the study found that a significantly higher share of Transition GPS participants (79.2%) were employed by 12 months post-separation than the matched comparison group (78.7%).
- The study found that a significantly higher share of Transition GPS participants (51.8%) who were employed at 6 months were still at the same job at 12 months, compared to the matched comparison group (51.5%). The study also found that a significantly higher share of Transition GPS participants (59.3%) who were employed at 6 months were employed at any job at 12 months, compared to the matched comparison group (59.2%).
- The study found that Transition GPS participants had higher number of quarters not employed at 12 months post-separation, compared to the matched comparison group. However, the study found that the number of quarters not employed at 36 months post-separation for Transition GPS participants was significantly lower (3.11) than the matched comparison group (3.22).
Public benefits receipt
- The study found that Transition GPS participants received higher UI benefits at 6 months post-separation but lower UI benefits at 12 and 36 months post-separation, than the matched comparison group.
Considerations for Interpreting the Findings
Although the study was a well-implemented nonexperimental design, this study has several issues that should be considered when interpreting the findings. The study sample only includes individuals in the U.S. Army and may not be representative of the larger military population. Data for participants observed later in the study may have been affected by higher overall unemployment toward the end of the enrollment period due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Importantly, the study has limitations in the employment and wage data. First, some forms of employment are not covered. The NDNH data does not include self-employment or local, state, or federal government employment. The UI data does reliably indicate employment status because not all individuals apply for UI and some individuals may be found ineligible. Second, the wage data lack detail. The use of pseudo-Federal Employer Identification Numbers in the NDNH data prevented analyses of job sectors and job quality. Employment and wage measures at the quarter level do not indicate part- or full-time status or time employed within the quarter.
Causal Evidence Rating
The quality of causal evidence presented in this report is moderate because it was based on a well-implemented non-experimental design. This means we are somewhat confident that the estimated effects are attributable to Transition GPS, but other factors might also have contributed.